DRIVERS OF HAZARDS
We attribute compounding dry-hot conditions that drive agricultural drought and wildfires (Jézéquel et al., 2024) across the Mediterranean, and that are projected to increase in the future (Vogel et al., 2017), from the scale of individual countries to the whole Mediterranean.
IMPACTS PATHWAYS
We focus on the production of key crops, like olive oil, which are challenged by a combination of extended dry-hot conditions and wildfires, resulting in harvests of 2022 and 2023 that were much inferior to average, mostly in Spain, Italy, Greece (Euronews, 2023;
Kaniewski et al., 2023). We also focus on human health and mortality, and on the separate and joint effects of heatwaves, droughts and wildfires (Salvador et al., 2024).
CASCADING IMPACTS
Prices of agricultural commodities are volatile with respect to supply; e.g. global olive oil prices reached record levels after those harvests (Mintec, 2024). Moreover, cumulative risk may lead to a substantial increase in mortality burden, and consequent high levels of healthcare demand. Decrease in agricultural products, health impacts, wildfires and loss of tourism may all compound to drive intangible damage to culture.
MAIN CHALLENGE AND LESSON
By working across scales, we learn the implications that multiple scales pose for the Protocol for Attribution, as well as the different needs for stakeholders operating at different scales.
KEY STAKEHOLDER:
Priority Actions Programme / Regional Activity Centre for the Mediterranean (PAP/RAC).
DRIVERS OF HAZARDS
We attribute compounding dry-hot conditions that drive agricultural drought and wildfires (Jézéquel et al., 2024) across the Mediterranean, and that are projected to increase in the future (Vogel et al., 2017), from the scale of individual countries to the whole Mediterranean.
IMPACTS PATHWAYS
We focus on the production of key crops, like olive oil, which are challenged by a combination of extended dry-hot conditions and wildfires, resulting in harvests of 2022 and 2023 that were much inferior to average, mostly in Spain, Italy, Greece (Euronews, 2023;
Kaniewski et al., 2023). We also focus on human health and mortality, and on the separate and joint effects of heatwaves, droughts and wildfires (Salvador et al., 2024).
CASCADING IMPACTS
Prices of agricultural commodities are volatile with respect to supply; e.g. global olive oil prices reached record levels after those harvests (Mintec, 2024). Moreover, cumulative risk may lead to a substantial increase in mortality burden, and consequent high levels of healthcare demand. Decrease in agricultural products, health impacts, wildfires and loss of tourism may all compound to drive intangible damage to culture.
MAIN CHALLENGE AND LESSON
By working across scales, we learn the implications that multiple scales pose for the Protocol for Attribution, as well as the different needs for stakeholders operating at different scales.
KEY STAKEHOLDER:
Priority Actions Programme / Regional Activity Centre for the Mediterranean (PAP/RAC).
